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Good morning, Crowd.
You bought SpaceX shares in 2020 at a $50 billion valuation.
Today, SpaceX is worth $800 billion.
Your stake? Up 16x.
The problem: You can't sell. No IPO. No exit.
Or can you?
Welcome to secondary markets, the $160 billion secret nobody talks about.
Pour yourself a fresh cup.
Read time: 5 minutes
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SECTION 01
The Market That Shouldn't Exist (But Does)
$160 billion in private shares traded hands in 2025.
No IPOs. No acquisitions. Just investors selling to other investors.
That's up 55% from 2024.
But here's the kicker: Only 2% of unicorn value trades on secondaries.
Which means this market is just getting started.
This week alone:
Tabby: $160M secondary at $4.5B valuation
Bending Spoons: $170M with secondary component at $11B
Early investors cashed out. New investors bought in. Companies stayed private.
This is happening every week.
“The secondaries market is experiencing rapid growth, with transaction volumes expected to reach record highs, driven by a strong demand for liquidity amid slow traditional exit activity.”
SECTION 02
How It Actually Works (ELI5 Version)
Think Taylor Swift concert tickets.
You bought front row seats for $500. Taylor announces she's retiring. Now they're worth $5,000.
Concert's not for another year. You need cash today.
What do you do? Sell them on StubHub.
That's a secondary market.
Private shares work the same way:
Primary market = Buy from the company (Ticketmaster)
Secondary market = Buy from other investors (StubHub)
Except instead of $5,000, you're trading million-dollar stakes in SpaceX, Stripe, and Databricks.
SECTION 03
The Three Ways This Happens
1. Direct Sales
You're a Stripe employee with shares worth $1.2M.
You go to Forge, Hiive, or EquityZen. They find a buyer.
The catch: You sell at 10-30% discount (liquidity premium).
But you get cash today.
2. Tender Offers
SpaceX does this quarterly.
"Employees can sell 20% of their shares. We'll match buyers and sellers."
Price set by company. Process controlled. Clean and simple.
SpaceX has done this at $80B, $350B, $500B, and $800B.
Early employees who sold? Retired.
3. Continuation Vehicles
Your VC's fund ends in 2026. But the company hasn't IPOd.
VC says: "Roll into our new fund, or sell?"
80% of investors are choosing: SELL.
Why? They want cash, not paper gains.
This is 20% of all private market distributions in 2026.
SECTION 04
The Hidden Traps
Transfer Restrictions
You can't just sell to anyone.
Most companies have Right of First Refusal (ROFR):
Find buyer
Notify company
The company can buy at the same price
If the company passes, existing investors can buy
Then you can sell
Takes 30-90 days. Sometimes gets blocked entirely.
Before buying secondaries: Confirm transfer is approved.
Otherwise, you're buying air.
Pricing Reality
Secondary shares usually trade at a discount:
Early-stage: 30-50% off
Late-stage: 10-20% off
Pre-IPO: 5-10% off
But sometimes they trade at a PREMIUM.
Stripe's last round: $95B (2023)
Secondary market today: $110-115B
Why? Revenue grew. Last round data is stale.
Secondary market = TODAY's value.
Real Example
Stripe at $105B
The offer:
Last round: $95B (2023)
Current implied: $110-120B
Secondary price: $105B
Quick analysis:
Q1 (Why selling?): Employee, 9 years, buying house → ✅
Q2 (Discount?): 9-14% off current value → ✅
Q3 (Liquidity?): IPO maybe 12-24 months → ⚠️
Q4 (Transfer?): ROFR cleared → ✅
Q5 (Cap table?): Sequoia, a16z, Thrive → ✅
Decision: Buy.
Upside: IPO at $140-150B in 18 months = 33-43% return
Downside: IPO delays or prices at $100B = breakeven
Risk/reward looks good.
The 5 Questions (Always Ask)
1. Why is the seller selling?
✅ Good: Employee diversifying after 8 years
❌ Bad: Insider fleeing (lawsuit? revenue collapse?)
2. What's the discount?
✅ Good: 10-20% off fair value
❌ Bad: 40%+ off (something's very wrong)
3. How close to liquidity?
✅ Good: IPO in 6-12 months
❌ Bad: No IPO plans, 5+ year hold
4. Transfer approved?
✅ Good: ROFR cleared, company approved
❌ Bad: "We'll handle it later" (no you won't)
5. Can I see the cap table?
✅ Good: Sequoia, a16z, clean structure
❌ Bad: "That's confidential" (run away)
What This Means for You
If you're holding private shares:
You don't have to wait for IPO. Secondary markets = exit option today.
If you're looking to invest:
You can buy SpaceX, Stripe, Databricks before they go public.
Often at a discount.
If you're watching private markets:
The old playbook is dead.
Old: Raise VC → Grow 4-6 years → IPO → Exit
New: Raise VC → Grow 8-10 years → Exit via secondaries → IPO (maybe)
Secondaries ARE the exit now.
Alberto
P.S. Only 2% of unicorn value trades on secondaries today.
There are 1,200 unicorns worth $4+ trillion.
2% = $80-100B annually.
But that's going to 10%+ in the next 3-5 years.
That's $400B+ in secondary volume.
We're in the EARLY innings.
Employees at SpaceX, Stripe, and Databricks who understand this? Getting liquidity.
Investors who know how to evaluate these deals? Getting access.
Everyone else? Still waiting for IPOs that might never come.
Don't be like everyone else.
Want access to secondary opportunities?
Premium members get:
Secondary deals surfaced before they hit the market
Full analysis (pricing, cap table, restrictions)
First access to allocation
Last month: $50B AI infrastructure company. Filled in 48 hours.
$100/month locks in lifetime rate.
See you Saturday with this week's top deals. ☕
Go crush Thursday.