This week recap: $108B Warner Bros bid, Kalshi's $1B raise, Anthropic's IPO prep

Good morning.

SpaceX's potential 2026 IPO could unlock a $2.9 trillion wave of mega-IPOs from companies waiting in the wings. Paramount just outbid Netflix with a stunning $108 billion offer for Warner Bros. Discovery. And Kalshi raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, making its co-founders billionaires.

Meanwhile, Anthropic is prepping for a 2026 IPO while chasing a $350 billion private valuation. And Databricks raised $4 billion, jumping from $100B to $134B in just three months.

This week showed where the IPO market is headed, who's winning the streaming wars, and which AI companies are positioning for massive public exits.

Your Saturday rundown:

Hey there, Alberto here.

Every Saturday, I break down the biggest moves in tech and startups—the deals reshaping industries, the IPOs everyone's watching, and what it means if you're investing in private markets.

This week was massive for late-stage valuations and IPO positioning. Let's dive in.

SpaceX's potential 2026 IPO could unlock a $2.9 trillion cascade of mega-IPOs from companies that have been waiting for the right moment to go public.

Here's the thesis: SpaceX is one of the most valuable private companies in the world. If it successfully lists at $1.5 trillion (as reported), it sends a signal to every other unicorn waiting on the sidelines: the IPO market is open for trillion-dollar valuations.

Companies like Stripe ($70B valuation), ByteDance (TikTok's parent, $300B+), and dozens of other late-stage unicorns have delayed IPOs for years. SpaceX going public successfully could trigger a flood of debuts.

Why this matters: The IPO market has been essentially frozen since 2021. High interest rates, market volatility, and uncertain valuations kept companies private longer than planned.

SpaceX breaking through at $1.5T would validate that public markets are ready to absorb massive tech companies again. That unlocks exits for venture capital, creates liquidity for employees and early investors, and opens opportunities for retail investors to access these companies.

Investment angle: If SpaceX IPOs successfully, expect a wave of secondary opportunities and direct IPO access in 2026-2027. Companies that have been waiting will rush to market while conditions are favorable. Early investors who positioned in pre-IPO rounds will see liquidity events accelerate.

Paramount made a stunning $108.4 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, outbidding Netflix's reported $82.7 billion offer.

This would create a media mega-giant combining Paramount's CBS, MTV, Nickelodeon, and Paramount+ with Warner Bros.' HBO, Max, CNN, Discovery, and massive film/TV library including Harry Potter, DC Comics, and Game of Thrones.

The deal isn't closed yet—regulators will scrutinize this intensely. But if approved, it would reshape streaming and traditional media.

Why this matters: Streaming consolidation is accelerating. Too many platforms are burning cash competing for subscribers. Paramount and Warner Bros have both struggled to compete with Netflix and Disney+ individually.

Combined, they'd have:

The bet: scale wins in streaming. You need enough content to justify the subscription price and enough subscribers to cover the massive content costs.

Investment angle: Streaming consolidation creates winners and losers. The companies with scale (Netflix, Disney, and potentially Paramount+Warner) will survive. Smaller players (Peacock, Paramount+ standalone) will struggle or get acquired. Investors should favor companies with scale or unique IP moats.

Kalshi just closed its third funding round of 2025—a $1 billion raise at an $11 billion valuation.

Paradigm led the round, with Sequoia, a16z, Meritech, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos, CapitalG, and Y Combinator participating.

Co-founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara are now billionaires at the new valuation.

The traction is real:

Why this matters: Kalshi is proving prediction markets aren't a fad. They're infrastructure.

The company is processing billions in monthly volume, signing distribution partnerships with traditional finance firms, and expanding globally. The funding will accelerate product development and international expansion.

Kalshi's co-founders are now billionaires less than 7 years after founding the company. That's the power of building in a new category with regulatory approval and massive TAM.

Investment angle: Prediction markets are becoming a legitimate asset class. Kalshi ($11B) and Polymarket ($9-12B) are both worth more than most traditional sportsbooks were at IPO. Early investors in this space are seeing returns that rival any category in tech. If you missed Kalshi and Polymarket, look for adjacent plays—data providers, technology infrastructure, or international prediction market platforms.

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Anthropic has hired Wilson Sonsini (the law firm that took Google and LinkedIn public) to begin IPO preparations targeting as early as 2026.

The company is simultaneously pursuing a private round at a $300-350 billion valuation, with Microsoft and NVIDIA reportedly committing up to $15 billion combined.

The growth is staggering:

Why this matters: Anthropic is positioning to be the second major AI company to go public (after OpenAI, if OpenAI lists first).

A $350B valuation would make Anthropic worth more than most Fortune 500 companies. It would also validate that AI infrastructure companies can command trillion-dollar-scale valuations in public markets.

The race is on: OpenAI targeting $1T, Anthropic targeting $350B, and both aiming for 2026 IPOs. Whoever goes first sets the benchmark.

Investment angle: Late-stage AI companies are seeing explosive valuation growth. Anthropic went from ~$1B ARR in 2024 to projected $10B in 2025 to $26B in 2026. That's the kind of growth that justifies $300B+ valuations. If you have access to pre-IPO shares in AI infrastructure companies, the 12-18 months before IPO could be the highest-return period as companies scale revenue aggressively to justify public market valuations.s.

Databricks just raised $4 billion in a Series L round at a $134 billion valuation, up 34% from its $100 billion valuation just three months ago.

That's a $34 billion increase in 90 days. Let that sink in.

Why the jump:

Why this matters: Databricks is the picks-and-shovels play for AI. Every company building AI needs data infrastructure. Databricks provides the platform to manage, analyze, and operationalize data at scale.

The 34% valuation jump in three months shows investors believe Databricks is capturing massive market share as AI adoption accelerates.

This is also IPO positioning. Companies raising large late-stage rounds at high valuations are typically setting the stage for public listings within 12-18 months.

Investment angle: Infrastructure companies that enable AI (Databricks, Snowflake, cloud providers) are seeing valuations surge even faster than AI model companies. The logic: models come and go, but infrastructure is sticky. Every AI company needs data infrastructure, compute, and storage. Databricks is positioning as the dominant player in data infrastructure for AI. That's why it can raise $4B at a 34% step-up in 90 days.

Five stories, one theme: late-stage companies are positioning for a massive IPO wave in 2026.

SpaceX could trigger $2.9T in IPOs by breaking the ice at $1.5T. Anthropic is hiring IPO lawyers and chasing $350B. Databricks jumped 34% in three months. Kalshi raised $1B at $11B and is expanding globally.

Even Paramount is making mega-bids (Warner Bros at $108B) to consolidate and create scale before the next market cycle.

The IPO market has been frozen since 2021. 2026 could be the year it reopens—and when it does, the first companies through will set the benchmarks for everyone else.

If you're investing in private markets, the next 12-18 months will be critical. Companies are raising last private rounds, hiring IPO advisors, and scaling revenue to justify public valuations.

The opportunity: get exposure before the IPOs. The risk: overpay in late-stage rounds that don't translate to IPO success.