☕ Sunday, March 15, 2026
Good morning, Crowd.
Robinhood's venture fund tanked 16% on day one.
VCs deployed $189B in February (83% went to 3 companies).
800 unicorns lining up to IPO.
Here are the 5 stories that mattered.
Read time: 3 minutes
PRIVATE MARKETS
1. Robinhood Venture Fund: -16% Day One
What happened: RVI listed on NYSE. Priced $25. Closed $21.
Why it bombed:
Stale valuations (Revolut in fund at $45B, trading at $75B on secondaries).
Liquidity trap (buying illiquid assets with liquid wrapper).
Your takeaway: Retail access to private markets ≠ automatically good deal. Better to wait for actual IPOs or buy secondaries directly.
“The secondaries market is experiencing rapid growth, with transaction volumes expected to reach record highs, driven by a strong demand for liquidity amid slow traditional exit activity.”
FUNDRAISING
2. $189B Deployed (But 83% to 3 Companies)
February 2026: Largest VC month in history.
The catch:
OpenAI: $110B
Anthropic: $30B
Waymo: $16B
Total: $156B out of $189B
Translation: Capital concentrating at top. Mega-rounds for AI leaders. Middle is squeezed.
Your takeaway: 2026 = year of extremes. Winners take all.
FUNDRAISING
3. Secondaries Hit All-Time High
2025: $160B
2026 projection: $200B+
LPs choosing "sell" over "roll": 80%+
Why: Companies staying private 11+ years. LPs need cash, not paper gains.
Your takeaway: Secondaries = PRIMARY exit now. Not backup plan. Only 2% of unicorn value trades secondaries today → going to 10%+ by 2028.
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FUNDRAISING
4. IPO Pipeline: 800 Unicorns Ready
2025 IPOs: $33.6B
2026 projection: $50B+ (up 50%)
Who's going public:
SpaceX (June, $1.5T), Anthropic ($350-500B), OpenAI ($830B-1T), Databricks, Revolut, Canva.
Reality check: 800 ready ≠ 800 going public. Probably 100-150 actually IPO.
Your takeaway: Window is OPEN. But quality matters.
FUNDRAISING
5. Prediction Markets Go Mainstream
Robinhood: 4B contracts traded (Jan alone)
Polymarket: $3B+ monthly
DraftKings: Launching prediction markets
Kalshi: Raising at $20B
Why it matters: Robinhood CEO says "fastest-growing business in company history." $100M+ revenue run rate.
Your takeaway: New asset class forming. Like sports betting 10 years ago (now $100B market).
The Big Picture
Old model: Raise → Grow 5-7 years → IPO
New model: Raise → Grow 10-15 years → Secondary exit OR IPO (maybe)
Three paths:
Mega-winners: OpenAI scale. $100B+ rounds. Stay private.
Quality exits: Strong economics. IPO at $1-10B.
Secondary liquidity: Can't/won't IPO. Exit via secondaries.
No middle anymore.
That is all for today.
Enjoy your Sunday and see you on Tuesday
Alberto.
P.S. Robinhood bombing proves: Private markets ≠ free money.
Fundamentals matter: valuation, liquidity, structure, timing.
That's what Premium is for, we do the analysis so you don't have to.