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🚀 Top 5 Private Markets & Economics News
Sunday, February 22, 2026
Happy Sunday, Crowd!
Alberto here with your weekly private markets briefing.
Yesterday, we covered startups.
Today, we're zooming out, the macro forces reshaping how private capital moves, where liquidity is flowing, and what it all means for your investment strategy.
Let's dig in.
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1. Secondary Market Hits Record $103B in H1 2025
What happened: Secondary transaction volume surged 51% to $103B in the first half of 2025 (Jefferies data). Full-year 2025 projected at $220B+.
Why it matters:
Secondaries — where investors buy and sell existing private company shares, are becoming the primary liquidity mechanism. IPOs and M&A are still slow, so LPs (limited partners) are selling stakes to other funds to get cash out.
This is creating a two-tier market:
Motivated sellers (universities adjusting allocations, funds needing liquidity)
Strategic buyers (funds with dry powder buying quality assets at 10-20% discounts)
Blackstone's Verdun Perry predicts secondary volume doubles to $400B by 2030. Preqin forecasts $1.4T in AUM by 2030 (16% CAGR).
The signal: If you can't IPO and M&A is slow, secondaries become the market. This is the new normal for private market exits.
2. IPO Market Momentum Building for 2026
What happened: 2025 saw the best IPO year since 2021 ($33.6B raised in the US). The government shutdown delayed several major IPOs into Q1 2026.
Why it matters:
The IPO window is open — but it's selective. Companies going public in 2025 averaged $800M+ in revenue and were profitable or cash-flow positive.
Expected 2026 IPOs include:
SpaceX ($1.5T target, June 2026)
OpenAI ($1T target, late 2026)
Anthropic ($300-350B, TBD 2026)
Databricks ($134B valuation, "ready whenever")
Kraken ($20B, Q1-Q2 2026)
But here's the catch: 800+ unicorns are still waiting in the private markets. The pipeline is enormous. Not everyone gets out.
The signal: Quality companies can IPO in 2026. Everyone else stays private longer — which makes secondaries even more important.
3. Private Markets AUM Approaching $15 Trillion
What happened: Private equity, credit, real estate, and infrastructure AUM continue growing despite slow distributions. Capital keeps flowing in.
Why it matters:
Even with weak exits, LPs (pension funds, endowments, family offices) are increasing allocations to private markets. Why?
Public markets are concentrated — 7 AI stocks drive 50%+ of S&P 500 returns
Companies stay private longer — more value accrues before IPO
Yield hunting — private credit offers 8-12% in a world where bonds yield 4%
The problem: Distributions (cash back to LPs) remain weak. Money goes in, but it's not coming back out fast enough. This creates pressure on secondaries and continuation funds.
The signal: Capital is trapped in private markets. This isn't necessarily bad — it just means you need to plan for 7-10 year hold periods, not 3-5.
4. AI Infrastructure Driving $500B+ in Investment
What happened: AI-related investment (data centers, chips, power infrastructure) expected to exceed $500B in 2026, adding 10-20 basis points to US GDP growth.
Why it matters:
This isn't software investment. This is physical infrastructure — server farms, power plants, transmission lines, cooling systems.
Key stats:
Data center buildout adding ~15-20 bps to GDP
AI companies account for 50%+ of S&P 500 returns
1/3 of global equity gains driven by AI stocks
The downstream effect:
Power companies raising rates (Dominion proposed first increase since 1992)
Utilities becoming VC targets (grid modernization, battery storage)
Real estate shifting to data center REITs
The signal: The AI boom is creating a secondary boom in infrastructure. Energy, power, and grid tech are the picks-and-shovels play.
5. Private Credit Hitting Maturity Wall
What happened: ~$11 trillion in floating-rate debt is refinancing in 2026-2027. Companies that borrowed at high rates in 2022-2023 need to roll over debt.
Why it matters:
Private credit exploded when banks pulled back. Now companies need to refinance at lower rates (Fed is cutting), but credit spreads are tightening as competition increases.
What's changing:
More lenders competing = tighter terms for borrowers
Public debt markets reopening = companies bypassing private credit
Asset-based financing growing fastest (factoring, equipment loans)
The PE angle: Sponsor-backed companies (owned by private equity) need to refinance. If they can't, PE firms either inject more equity or sell the company. This creates M&A pressure — which could finally unstick the exit market.
The signal: 2026-2027 is a refinancing wave. Watch for distressed credit opportunities and forced M&A.
🎯 How Founderscrowd Fits In
Our investment strategy aligns with exactly these shifts:
1. We focus on infrastructure, not apps.
The deals we source are in AI infrastructure, energy tech, robotics, and enterprise SaaS — categories where capital is concentrating and exits are more predictable.
2. We provide secondary access.
Many of our deals are secondary purchases of existing shares in companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and Databricks — giving you pre-IPO exposure at discounts to eventual IPO pricing.
3. We help you build patience into your strategy.
Private market investing requires 7-10 year time horizons. Our portfolio approach (spreading $5K-$10K across 5-10 companies) helps you build diversification while accepting illiquidity.
This week's opportunities include:
Pre-IPO secondaries (companies filing for 2026 IPO)
Energy infrastructure plays (grid tech, power efficiency)
AI workflow automation (picks and shovels, not models)
📊 What It All Means
Here's how these five trends connect:
Liquidity is returning — but unevenly.
IPOs: Open for quality companies (profitable, $500M+ revenue)
M&A: Still slow but improving (private credit refinancing will force deals)
Secondaries: Growing fast, becoming mainstream exit option
Capital is concentrating.
AI gets 85% of VC funding
Non-AI companies face "zero interest" unless fundamentals are exceptional
Mega-rounds ($300M+) are back, but only for proven businesses
Private markets are maturing.
Hold periods are longer (7-10 years, not 3-5)
Distributions are weak (capital trapped)
Secondaries and continuation funds filling the gap
The smart money is rotating.
From late-stage growth → infrastructure plays
From consumer apps → B2B SaaS with real revenue
From moonshots → companies with path to profitability
🔮 What To Watch This Week
Monday: IPO pricings (5 companies pricing this week per Yahoo Finance)
Tuesday: Fed speak (rate cut expectations for March meeting)
Wednesday: Private market valuation data (Forge, Nasdaq Private Market updates)
Thursday: Earnings from public comps (Coinbase, Robinhood — tell us how exchanges are doing)
The macro picture for private markets in 2026 is clear: liquidity is normalizing, but selectivity is increasing.
Quality companies with real revenue and paths to profitability will raise capital, exit, and return money to investors.
Everyone else will stay private longer — which means picking the right companies at the right stage matters more than ever.
That's where we come in.
Have a great Sunday.
Alberto 🤙
⚡ Quick Macro Hits
Fed rate cuts: 25-50 bps expected in 2026 (Goldman Sachs baseline)
Europe: ECB likely delivers two 25bps cuts to reach 1.5% terminal rate
UK real estate: Commercial investment volumes tracking +15-20% in 2026
Secondaries AUM: Projected to exceed $1.4T by 2030 (16% CAGR)
Founderscrowd connects everyday investors with startup deals from top VCs — minimums starting at $100. Learn more at founderscrowd.com
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.