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Good afternoon!
Here's what moved private markets this week.
The intel:
Global oil inventories are falling at the fastest rate in history. The U.S. and China are trading Taiwan for Iran cooperation. Space stocks are rallying ahead of SpaceX's $2 trillion IPO. And defense tech just raised $6.5 billion in a single week.
Three geopolitical shifts. One defense mega-deal. And a funding/M&A recap.
Let's break it down. ☕
Jose, Alberto, and the Founderscrowd team.
🎁 Before you keep reading, we've got you covered. Check this out.
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🛢️ HORMUZ CRISIS: OIL RUNNING OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED
What's happening:
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since late February 2026. Global oil stockpiles are falling at 4.8 million barrels per day—the fastest drawdown in IEA history.
The numbers:
25% of global oil passed through Hormuz before the war
20% of global LNG also blocked
9 million barrels/day bottlenecked (can't get out)
100 million barrels/week lost while Hormuz stays closed
880 million barrels already lost (net, after strategic releases)
When inventories hit zero:
They won't hit zero. They'll hit "operational minimum" first—the point where the system breaks.
JPMorgan's timeline:
Early June: Some Asian countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines) hit critical levels
June-July: European jet fuel stocks deplete (right before summer travel)
September: OECD inventories reach "operational minimum" if Strait stays closed
What happens then:
Prices spike to kill demand. Oil could hit $200/barrel. Economy crashes. Severe recession.
Why this matters for private markets:
Defense tech is the only hedge.
Anduril raised $5 billion this week. Shield AI raised $1.5 billion in March. Helsing raising $1.2 billion.
VCs are betting that:
Wars drive defense spending
Defense tech scales faster than old contractors
Autonomous systems (drones, missiles) win modern conflicts
Bottom line:
Hormuz won't reopen until the U.S.-Iran war ends. War won't end until Trump gets a deal. Deal requires China's help. Which brings us to...
🇨🇳 TRUMP-XI SUMMIT: TAIWAN AS A BARGAINING CHIP
What happened:
Trump met Xi in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026. First U.S. state visit to China in nearly a decade.
"Taiwan is the most important issue. If mishandled, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy."
Translation: Don't sell weapons to Taiwan. Or else.
What Trump did:
Used Taiwan as leverage. Told Fox News the pending $14 billion Taiwan arms sale is "a very good negotiating chip."
"I haven't approved it yet. We're going to see what happens."
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi: "We sensed that the U.S. side understands China's position and does not support Taiwan moving toward independence."
What this means:
Trump is trading Taiwan support for China's help with Iran.
Why Trump needs China:
China is Iran's biggest customer (imports Iranian oil)
China has leverage with Iran (economic partnership)
Trump wants China to pressure Iran to reopen Hormuz
In exchange: Trump soft-pedals Taiwan
The deal (implied, not announced):
U.S. gives: Delays Taiwan arms sales, ambiguous language on Taiwan independence
China gives: Pressure on Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, more market access for U.S. companies
Why this matters for private markets:
Two implications:
1. Taiwan risk just increased.
If Trump uses Taiwan as a bargaining chip, China sees weakness. Palmer Luckey (Anduril founder) has said publicly: "China will move on Taiwan in 2027."
His entire company is built on that assumption. Every product. Every investment. "China 2027" strategy.
If Luckey is right, defense tech wins big.
2. Iran war might end sooner than expected.
If China pressures Iran and Trump gets a deal, Hormuz reopens. Oil prices drop. Recession averted.
But defense spending doesn't stop. Once the Pentagon commits to autonomous systems, the money keeps flowing.
Bottom line:
Trump traded Taiwan for Iran. China won the summit. But defense tech companies win either way—war or peace, the Pentagon is buying drones.
🚀 SPACE STOCKS SURGE: SPACEX IPO COMING
What's happening:
SpaceX is filing for IPO in June 2026. Expected valuation: $1.75-2 trillion.
That would be the largest IPO in history (bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29.4B raise).
Why this matters:
Every space stock is rallying on the news.
Investors can't buy SpaceX yet. So they're buying publicly-traded space companies as proxies:
Rocket Lab (RKLB): Up 57% in 2 weeks
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Rally on satellite buildout news
Intuitive Machines (LUNR): $180M NASA contract for lunar lander
The thesis:
Space is infrastructure now. Not exploration.
Satellite constellations (communications)
Earth observation (defense, climate)
Space-based internet (Starlink)
Lunar logistics (NASA Artemis program)
Missile defense (Golden Dome program)
The numbers:
Rocket Lab: $200.3M revenue (Q1 2026), +63.5% YoY, $2.2B backlog, $49B market cap
AST SpaceMobile: 45-60 satellite launches in 2026 (direct-to-phone service)
Intuitive Machines: $900M-$1B revenue guidance for 2026 (5x current run rate)
Why investors are piling in:
SpaceX IPO at $2 trillion sets a benchmark. If SpaceX is worth $2T, what's Rocket Lab worth?
Analysts are pricing Rocket Lab at 30x 2030 operating profit. Current price target: $150 (vs $47 current).
Bottom line:
Space is the new defense. Same buyers (Pentagon, NASA). Same budgets (hundreds of billions). Same urgency (China is building a space station).
VCs who missed SpaceX are buying everything else.
💎 WHAT PREMIUM MEMBERS GOT THIS WEEK
Deep dive: Modeling Anduril's IPO valuation.
We built a bottoms-up model using:
Revenue growth ($2.2B → $5B+ by 2027)
Margin expansion (software scales to 60%+ gross margins)
Public comps (Palantir, RTX, Lockheed)
Pentagon budget allocation (drones getting 5% of $850B budget)
Our model: Anduril IPOs at $80-120B in 2027.
At $120B, early investors (who got in at $300M seed valuation) make 400x.
Next week: The geopolitics of oil. Why Hormuz staying closed past June means $200 oil, global recession, and a massive energy infrastructure buildout (which creates $100B+ in venture opportunities).
$100/month. Lock in before price increases to $220/month in June.
🎖️ ANDURIL: $5B RAISE AT $61B VALUATION
What happened:
Anduril raised $5 billion in a Series H round on May 13, 2026.
The numbers:
$5B raised (Series H)
$61B valuation (2x from June 2025's $30.5B)
$11B+ total raised since 2017
$2.2B revenue in 2025 (doubled from 2024)
Already profitable
Who led:
Thrive Capital, Andreessen Horowitz
What Anduril does:
Defense tech. Autonomous drones, missiles, underwater vehicles, AI command systems.
Founded by Palmer Luckey (Oculus creator, sold to Facebook for $2B).
Key products:
Drones: Altius (loitering munitions), Ghost (reconnaissance), Fury (autonomous wingman)
Missiles: Hypersonic, anti-drone interceptors
Underwater: Ghost Shark (autonomous sub), Dive-LD
Software: Lattice OS (the "operating system for war"—connects sensors, drones, missiles into one network)
The traction:
$20B Army contract (consolidated all Anduril programs)
10,000+ hypersonic missiles (Pentagon order announced same day as funding)
$2.2B revenue in 2025
50%+ gross margins on software
Why this is massive:
1. Defense tech is now venture-scale.
In 2017, VCs didn't touch defense. Too slow, too regulated.
Now? Anduril raised $11B. Shield AI raised $1.5B. Helsing raising $1.2B.
2. Ukraine proved the thesis.
Modern warfare = drones, not tanks. Cheap autonomous systems beat expensive platforms.
Anduril's bet: Software > hardware. Quantity > quality. Speed > precision.
3. Real revenue, real margins.
Not pre-revenue. Not burning cash. $2.2B in sales. Profitable. Pentagon is the customer.
The IPO path:
Anduril will IPO in 2027 at $80-120B valuation (our model).
Palantir (defense AI) IPO'd at $20B in 2020. Now worth $140B.
Anduril has more products, more revenue, more government contracts.
Bottom line:
Defense tech is the hottest category in venture. Anduril is the category leader. $61B valuation. IPO coming 2027.
📊 THIS WEEK'S FUNDING & M&A RECAP
Big raises (May 12-17, 2026):
Defense & Space:
Anduril: $5B Series H at $61B valuation (defense tech)
Starfish Space: $111.7M (autonomous space vehicles)
Rocket Lab: Record Q1 revenue $200.3M, $2.2B backlog
AI Infrastructure:
Fractile: $220M Series B (AI inference chips)
DeepInfra: $107M Series B (AI infrastructure layer)
Aria Networks: $125M Series A (AI-driven data center networking)
Tessera Labs: $60M (Andreessen Horowitz-led)
Crypto & Compliance:
Elliptic: $120M Series D at $670M valuation (crypto compliance, Deutsche Bank + Nasdaq investors)
Biotech:
CREATE Medicines: $122M Series B (in vivo CAR-T cancer therapy)
Sidewinder Therapeutics: $137M Series B (cancer drugs)
Enterprise AI:
Judgment Labs: $32M seed + Series A (AI agent infrastructure, Lightspeed-led)
Outmarket AI: $17M Series A (insurance AI platform)
GovWell: $25M Series A (AI for government)
Total raised this week: ~$6.5 billion (defense + AI infrastructure dominating)appens if (when?) they fail to ship. Spoiler: The downside is $4 billion. The upside is infinite. That's the bet.
🔥 THE BOTTOM LINE
The Strait of Hormuz is draining oil reserves at a record pace. Trump traded Taiwan to China for help with Iran. Space stocks are booming on SpaceX's $2 trillion IPO. And Anduril raised $5 billion at a $61 billion valuation.
This week showed three things:
1. Geopolitics drives capital allocation.
Iran war → oil crisis → defense tech boom.
China tension → Taiwan risk → space/defense rally.
2. Infrastructure beats apps.
Defense, space, AI chips, biotech raised $6.5 billion.
Consumer apps raised... nothing.
3. The winners are obvious.
Anduril ($61B). Rocket Lab ($49B market cap). Elliptic ($670M). Fractile ($220M raise).
All infrastructure. All hard tech. All solving hard problems.
This week in private markets:
$6.5B raised (defense + AI infrastructure)
$5B went to one company (Anduril)
$2T SpaceX IPO coming (June 2026)
$200/barrel oil if Hormuz stays closed
The lesson:
Build infrastructure that governments or enterprises need to survive. Not apps that users kinda like.
Because when oil runs out and wars escalate, apps don't matter.
Defense, energy, space, and AI infrastructure matter.
Pick one. Build it. Get funded.
See you Tuesday. Until then, keep hunting. ☕
Alberto
Founderscrowd
P.S. If you're wondering whether the AI infrastructure thesis is overblown — join Premium. This week's deep dive breaks down exactly how much compute, power, and memory the AI buildout actually requires through 2030. Spoiler: We're not even close to saturated. The build-out is just starting.
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