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Good morning.
I'm Jose.
Today, we'd like to share some exclusive insights into the performance of several funds with exposure to SpaceX.
As private market investors know, opportunities to invest in companies like SpaceX are often limited to institutions, venture capital firms, and high-net-worth individuals. Because of this, information on fund performance is rarely available to the public.
In this edition, we're pulling back the curtain and sharing historical return data from select SpaceX-focused funds, providing a unique look at how investors have participated in the growth of one of the world's most valuable private companies.
Let's dive into the numbers.
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SPACE X STORY
🎯 PRIVATE MARKETS: $100B+ JUST GOT REDISTRIBUTED
The deal: SpaceX's $75 billion IPO forced a liquidity event that hasn't happened since the Facebook IPO in 2012. Here's what's flowing back to private markets:
Founders Fund (Peter Thiel's fund):
Original bet: $600 million before SpaceX hit $1B valuation
Position value at IPO: $50+ billion
Holding period: 15+ years
Return: 80x+ on deployed capital
Now, Founders Fund is legally obligated to distribute this capital back to their limited partners (endowments, pension funds, family offices). Where does it go? Back into new venture funds.
Andreessen Horowitz (a16z):
SpaceX position value: $10+ billion
This is 16z's single largest return in fund history
More than their entire first fund size
When a16z distributes this capital, their LPs get first call on Andreessen's new fund. Which means $5-10 billion redeploys into Series A/B companies in 2026-2027.
Sequoia Capital:
Invested $2B, holds 1.5% stake
Position value: $20+ billion
10x return in under a decade
Sequoia is now flush with capital. Their partners are already hunting for the next 10x opportunity. That's you, if you're building the right thing.
The cascade:
SpaceX IPO forces VC distributions
VC distributions go back to LPs
LPs reinvest in new venture funds
New venture funds deploy into Series A/B rounds
Series A/B founders get funded at better terms
| VC distributions | |
| LP reinvestment | |
| Employee angels | |
| Retail FOMO |
Timeline: Distributions start flowing in July-August. New funds close in August-September. First capital check hits Series A companies in October-November 2026.
What this means: If you're raising Series A or Series B right now, September is when the capital arrives. If you're raising Series Seed, August is when tier-one VCs start actively deploying again.
💰 INTERESTING FIND: THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT
The deal: SpaceX's $75 billion IPO is bigger than the next two largest IPOs in history combined.
The math:
SpaceX: $75B
Saudi Aramco + Alibaba: $54.4B
SpaceX > both of them combined by $20B
What this means:
This isn't just a bigger IPO. This is a category reset. Capital markets just proved they can mobilize $75+ billion for a single founder's vision.
That changes what's possible for founders. Not just at the IPO stage—but at every stage before.
If capital markets believe in SpaceX's $1.77T valuation built on Starlink, orbital data centers, and Mars, they'll believe in your $100B TAM too.
The bar just got higher. But the ceiling just got higher too.
💎 HOW $600M BECAME $50B: THE EARLY INVESTING THESIS THAT CHANGED PRIVATE MARKETS
The Signal: Peter Thiel's Founders Fund made a bet when SpaceX was worth less than $1 billion. Today that bet is worth $50 billion. That's not a 10x return. That's an 83x return over 15 years. And it's revealing a fundamental truth about private markets that most investors miss.
The Details:
Founders Fund's entry point: SpaceX at <$1B valuation (pre-2010) Position size: $600 million Current position value: $50+ billion Time horizon: 15+ years Annual return: 16% CAGR
But here's what makes this special: Founders Fund wasn't the largest investor. They weren't betting the firm. They were making a conviction bet on a founder with a wild idea (reusable rockets).
What changed between then and now?
2010: SpaceX was losing money, had two failed launches, everyone thought Elon was insane
2026: SpaceX has 50+ successful launches, dominates commercial space, has Starlink as a second multi-billion dollar business, and is now valued at $1.77T
The investors who got it right in 2010 got rich in 2026. The investors who dismissed it as "Elon's vanity project" in 2010 are now watching from the sidelines.
Why It Matters:
This isn't a SpaceX story. This is a private markets story.
Early investing in the right company — at the right valuation, from the right founder — is the only way to generate 50x+ returns in venture capital. You can't get a 50x return buying secondary shares at a $100B valuation. You get a 50x return by buying at $1B and holding until $50B+.
The equation is simple:
Entry at $1B, exit at $50B = 50x
Entry at $10B, exit at $50B = 5x
Entry at $30B, exit at $50B = 1.7x
Entry at $50B (IPO), exit at ???
The timing problem: By the time a company is "obviously" going to succeed, the valuation is already high. The early investors (who took real risk) make the life-changing returns. Later investors (who took less risk) make smaller returns.
📊 THE POWER LAW OF EARLY INVESTING: WHY FOUNDERS FUND'S $600M BET MATTERS
The Signal: Founders Fund's $600M investment is now worth $50B. That single position will make their entire fund profitable for decades. This is what venture capitalists call the "power law" — a small number of bets generate most of the returns.
Here's the math:
If Founders Fund raised a $500M fund in 2010, and SpaceX was their only 50x return, here's what happens:
Fund size: $500M
SpaceX position: $600M invested
Current value: $50B
Return multiple: 83x
That means: One company from a $500M fund generated a $50B return.That fund generated returns so large that everything else in the fund (other investments that made 2x, 5x, or even 10x) becomes secondary.
Why This Pattern Matters:
Venture capital returns don't follow a bell curve. They follow a power law. A tiny number of investments generate most of the returns.
The winners in private markets are investors who:
Put small bets on moonshot founders early
Hold for 10+ years
Have conviction when everyone else doubts
If you're an investor, you don't need to get every deal right. You need to get one or two deals really right.
If you're a founder, you don't need to raise from everyone. You need to raise from investors who have conviction in your long-term vision (like Thiel had in Elon).
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QUICK HITS
Quick Hits
📰 Everything else that mattered this week
AI Stock Mania Continues — Mega-cap AI stocks rallying hard on SpaceX momentum. Investors building conviction that AI infrastructure = permanent shift in capital markets. The "World Cup of AI stocks" is still in opening rounds.
Starlink Dominance Signal — SpaceX's Starlink revenue is now a significant portion of company value. If Starlink alone goes public, it could be a $300-500B company. That's larger than most entire industries.
Cost-of-Living Gap Widening — Yang's thesis backed by data. U.S. housing costs up 300% since 2000. Healthcare inflation at 4-5% annually. Energy costs 2-3x higher than comparable markets. The gap is massive.
Founder Psychology Shift — Mega-cap founders (Elon, Sam Altman, etc.) are now signaling they're willing to wait longer before IPO. But when they do IPO, they're pricing aggressively. It's now an IPO at peak or stay private longer.
🎯 ALBERTO'S FINAL WORD
The SpaceX story isn't about rockets. It's about conviction at the right time with the right founder.
Founders Fund made a bet. Everyone else thought it was crazy. 15 years later, one company made them billions.
That's how private markets work. That's how wealth is actually created.
The lesson: Early conviction beats perfect information.
If you're waiting for a company to be "obviously" successful before you invest, you're already too late. You're buying at the expensive part of the curve.
The money is made at the beginning — when the founder is obsessed, the market is nascent, and everyone else thinks it's impossible.
SpaceX proved it in 2026. The next SpaceX is being built right now. And the investors who have conviction today will be the billionaires tomorrow.
Hunt accordingly. ☕
Alberto
Founderscrowd