Good morning.

Kalshi's valuation more than doubled to $11 billion in less than two months. Anthropic just landed $15 billion from Microsoft and Nvidia at a $350 billion valuation. And venture capital funds are now hitting 20 years old with billions trapped in overvalued startups.

Meanwhile, Nvidia posted $57 billion in revenue—and Peter Thiel dumped all his shares right before earnings.

This week showed exactly where capital is flowing, where it's stuck, and who's getting out before everyone else.

Your Sunday rundown:

Alberto here with your Sunday newsletter—Founderscrowd's Top 5.

Every Sunday, I break down the biggest stories from tech and startups. The moves that signal where capital is going, the bottlenecks that trap it, and what it means if you're watching private market opportunities.

Let's dive in.

Kalshi, the prediction market that lets people bet on future events, just raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation.

That's more than double its $5 billion valuation from just eight weeks ago when it raised $300 million.

Why this matters: Prediction markets are exploding. After winning regulatory battles that kept them restricted for years, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are proving people want to bet on everything from elections to economic data.

Kalshi is particularly interesting because it's fully regulated—unlike offshore competitors. That regulatory approval gives it access to institutional capital and mainstream adoption.

A 7-year-old startup doubling its valuation in 8 weeks tells you demand is real and investors see massive growth potential.

Investment angle: Prediction markets are a new asset class. If you believe markets are the best way to aggregate information (the "wisdom of crowds"), platforms that facilitate those markets become valuable infrastructure.

Venture capital funds are living nearly twice as long as planned.

Some are hitting 20 years old with billions still trapped in overvalued startups. Portfolio companies once valued at 20x revenue now fetch just 2x in secondary markets—a 90% discount.

Why this matters: The VC model is designed around a 10-year lifecycle. You raise a fund, invest over 3-5 years, let companies grow for 5-7 years, then exit via IPO or acquisition.

But the IPO market has been mostly closed since 2021. Companies that were supposed to go public at 20x revenue multiples are now stuck. And when they do exit, it's at 2x—meaning a 90% haircut to the paper valuations VCs marked their funds at.

Limited Partners (the pension funds and endowments that invest in VC funds) are confronting the reality that their capital is locked up far longer than expected—and worth far less.

Investment angle: This is why timing matters. If you invested in late-stage companies in 2020-2021 at peak valuations, you're now underwater. If you're investing now at 2x revenue instead of 20x, you're positioned for the next cycle.

Anthropic just landed up to $15 billion from Microsoft and Nvidia, pushing its valuation to around $350 billion.

The AI startup will spend $30 billion on compute—split between Azure (Microsoft's cloud) and Nvidia's chips.

Why this matters: Less than two years old and Anthropic is already one of the most valuable private companies in history.

This deal shows Big Tech is hedging beyond OpenAI. Microsoft was OpenAI's exclusive cloud partner. Now they're also backing Anthropic with massive capital.

Nvidia's involvement is strategic too—they're ensuring Anthropic buys billions in Nvidia chips, locking in future revenue.

Investment angle: AI infrastructure companies (cloud providers, chip makers) are the picks-and-shovels play. Anthropic might succeed or fail, but Microsoft and Nvidia get paid either way.

Nvidia posted $57 billion in revenue for Q3—62% higher than the same quarter last year.

Net income hit $32 billion, up 65% year-over-year. Both beat Wall Street expectations.

CEO Jensen Huang struck a bullish tone, essentially saying: "The AI boom is real, demand is real, and we're just getting started."

Why this matters: Every quarter, skeptics ask: "Is AI a bubble? Will demand for Nvidia chips collapse?"

Every quarter, Nvidia posts record numbers that prove demand is accelerating, not slowing.

Companies are spending billions on AI infrastructure because AI is driving real business value. Nvidia is the only company that can supply the chips those data centers need.

Investment angle: When the infrastructure layer of a new technology wave is printing money, it validates that the wave is real. Nvidia's numbers prove AI isn't hype—it's a multi-trillion-dollar buildout.

Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro, sold all its Nvidia stock last quarter—a $100 million exit.

The move came right before Nvidia's earnings report (which, as we just discussed, crushed expectations).

Why this matters: Thiel isn't stupid. He made billions as PayPal co-founder and Facebook's first outside investor. When he exits a position entirely, it's worth asking why.

The timing is interesting. Nvidia's stock has been on a tear, and Thiel sold at the top of that run—right before earnings that would have pushed it higher.

Is this profit-taking after massive gains? A signal he thinks AI stocks are overheated? Or just portfolio rebalancing?

We don't know. But billionaires have information and timing advantages retail doesn't.

Investment angle: When legendary investors exit positions completely, pay attention. It doesn't mean you should panic-sell, but it's a data point worth considering.

Five stories, one theme: capital is moving fast, but not everyone can move with it.

Kalshi doubled its valuation in 8 weeks. Anthropic raised $15 billion at a $350 billion valuation. Nvidia keeps printing money.

But VCs are stuck in 20-year-old funds with 90% discounts on paper valuations. And smart money like Thiel is taking chips off the table.

The opportunities exist. But access, timing, and liquidity matter more than ever.

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