Five days from now, you'll have a choice to make.
Option 1: Buy SpaceX at $800 billion (private market price)
Option 2: Wait and buy SpaceX at $1.5 trillion (public IPO price)
Option 1 is only available to Premium members.
Option 2 is available to everyone.
The difference? $700 billion in valuation. Or, if you prefer percentages: 87.5%.
Let me show you the math that has institutional investors writing checks right now.
Founderscrowd Premium (angel and retail investors) will gain access next week.
Only the 1% have access to this.
Which side will you be on?
⏱️ Read time: 5 minutes
The SpaceX Numbers Everyone's Talking About
Revenue trajectory:
2020: $2B
2022: $8B
2024: $13.1B
2025: $15-18B (estimated)
2026: $23.8B (projected)
That's 10x revenue growth in 6 years.
For context:
Amazon took 10 years to 10x revenue
Google took 8 years
Facebook took 7 years
SpaceX is doing it in 6.
The breakdown (2025 revenue):
Starlink: $11.8-15.5B (70-80% of total)
Launch services: $4.4B (165 Falcon 9 flights)
Government contracts: $2B+ (Pentagon, NASA)
Translation: SpaceX isn't a rocket company anymore. It's a satellite internet company that also launches rockets.
The Starlink Story (This Is What You're Really Buying)
February 2026: Starlink hit 10 million subscribers.
Let that sink in. 10 million paying customers for satellite internet.
For comparison:
Viasat (largest competitor): 750,000 subscribers
HughesNet (second largest): 1.2 million subscribers
Starlink has more subscribers than every other satellite internet provider combined. Times four.
The growth rate:
Dec 2022: 1M subscribers
Sep 2024: 4M subscribers
Dec 2025: 9M subscribers
Feb 2026: 10M subscribers
That's 10x in 3 years.
The revenue math:
10M subscribers × $100/month average = $1B/month
Annualized: $12B/year from subscriptions alone
Add hardware sales: +$1.5-2B
Add enterprise/government: +$2-3B
Total Starlink 2026 projection: $15.9-18.7B
And here's the kicker: Gross margins are climbing from 7% (2024) to 25% (2026 target).
Translation: Starlink is becoming a cash-printing machin
Why Institutions Are Buying at $800B
I spent two days talking to institutional investors who are writing $5-10M checks into SpaceX right now.
Here's what they told me:
Reason 1: "Starlink is a SaaS business, not a satellite business"
Their comp:
Netflix: $300B market cap, $35B revenue, 7x revenue multiple
If Starlink hits $20B revenue (2027 projection) at 7x multiple: $140B just for Starlink
Add launch services ($10B value) + Starship optionality ($50B) = $200B
At $800B entry, they're paying 4x that. Expensive? Yes. But if Starlink keeps doubling subscribers every 18 months, they'll look cheap in 3 years.
Reason 2: "The IPO pop is already priced in"
The pattern they're seeing:
Private market today: $800B (institutions buying)
IPO June 2026: $1.5T (retail buying)
6 months post-IPO: Could be $1.2T (reality sets in) or $2T (if Starlink crushes it)
Their play: Buy at $800B, sell half at $1.5T IPO (lock in 87.5% gain), hold half for 3-5 years (bet on Starlink TAM expansion).
Reason 3: "This is Elon's best company"
One investor told me: "Tesla is great. But it's a car company in a competitive market. SpaceX has 90% market share in orbital launch and 90% market share in satellite internet. That's not competition. That's dominance."
The moat:
Only company that can launch its own satellites at $30M/launch (competitors pay $80M+)
9,000 satellites already in orbit (takes years to replicate)
10M subscriber network effects (more subscribers = better service = more subscribers)
Translation: This isn't a bet on Elon being brilliant. It's a bet on structural advantages that can't be copied quickly.
The Bull Case (Why This Could 3x from Here)
Scenario: Starlink executes on TAM expansion
The markets Starlink is entering:
Direct-to-cell: $100B+ TAM (partnered with T-Mobile, Rogers, Optus)
Aviation: $30B+ TAM (signed United, Air France, Qatar, 15+ more airlines)
Maritime: $20B+ TAM (signed Royal Caribbean, Maersk, Carnival)
Government/Military: $10B+ TAM (Pentagon already spending $2B+/year)
If Starlink captures even 30% of these markets by 2030:
Revenue: $50-70B/year (from Starlink alone)
At 10x revenue multiple: $500-700B (just Starlink)
Add launch + Starship: +$200B
Total: $700-900B
Math on your investment:
Entry: $800B (private market)
Exit: $700-900B... wait, that's break-even to +12.5%?
No. Because you're entering at $800B TOTAL valuation, but Starlink alone could be worth $700B.
Starlink at $700B + Launch at $100B + Starship at $200B = $1T total
Your gain: 25% over 4 years (if conservative case plays out)
If Starlink gets to $70B revenue (aggressive case):
Starlink valuation: $700B (at 10x revenue)
Total SpaceX: $1.2-1.5T
Your gain: 50-87.5% over 4 years
The Bear Case (Why This Could Lose You Money)
I'm not going to sugarcoat this. There are real risks.
Risk 1: The IPO delays or cancels
Musk has changed his mind before:
Said Tesla wouldn't raise capital (raised $13B since)
Said SpaceX would stay private until Mars (now IPO-ing in June)
Said Twitter wouldn't go private (bought it 6 months later)
If the IPO delays to 2027 or 2028:
Your money is locked (can't sell)
Opportunity cost (could've invested elsewhere)
Fees still apply (you're paying 2-5% + 20% carry for... waiting)
Risk 2: The IPO crashes post-launch
Historical comps:
Coinbase IPO'd at $85B → Dropped to $40B within a year (-53%)
Rivian IPO'd at $100B → Dropped to $15B within a year (-85%)
If SpaceX follows this pattern:
IPO at $1.5T
Drops to $900B within 6 months (-40%)
You entered at $800B, it's now worth $900B = +12.5%
Minus fees (2-5% + 20% carry on gains) = ~5-8% net return
Not terrible, but not the 87.5% you were hoping for.
Risk 3: Competition from Amazon's Kuiper
Amazon is launching 3,236 satellites starting 2026. If Kuiper is even 70% as good as Starlink:
Market share: Starlink drops from 90% to 60%
Pricing power: Evaporates (price competition)
Margins: Compress from 25% to 15%
Impact on valuation:
Instead of $20B revenue at 25% margin = $5B gross profit
Now it's $12B revenue at 15% margin = $1.8B gross profit
Valuation could drop 30-50%
So What's The Play?
Here's what I'm telling Premium members:
If you believe:
Starlink will hit 20M+ subscribers by 2028
Direct-to-cell, aviation, maritime will add $10B+ revenue
The IPO happens in June 2026 as planned
You can hold through 6-month post-IPO lockup (even if stock is volatile)
Then this is one of the best risk/reward setups in private markets right now.
If you're unsure about any of those four things, wait.
Because here's the truth: This isn't a guaranteed win. It's a calculated bet with 70% odds of making 50-100% returns and 30% odds of making 0-20% returns.
Your expected value: Probably 35-70% over 18-24 months (accounting for probability-weighted outcomes).
Is that worth locking up capital?
Only you can decide.
What Happens Wednesday
March 12, 9 AM EST: SpaceX pre-IPO access opens to Premium members.
Here's how it works:
You'll receive an email with investment instructions
You'll review the full memo (bull case, bear case, our thesis, fee structure)
You'll decide your investment amount (minimum $100-500, TBD)
You'll complete the SPV subscription agreement (legal docs)
You'll wire funds (or ACH transfer)
You're in (congrats, you just invested in SpaceX at institutional pricing)
Timeline:
March 12: Investment window opens
March 19: Investment window closes (1 week)
June 2026: IPO (expected)
December 2026: Lockup expires (you can sell)
Total hold time: 9-12 months
The Price Increase
(This Is Real)
After SpaceX launches on Wednesday, Premium goes from $40/month to $120/month.
Why?
Because we just proved we can deliver institutional-quality deals to retail investors.
SpaceX isn't a "nice to have" deal. It's THE deal.
The deal that institutions write $10M checks for. The deal that defines venture portfolios. The deal that everyone will talk about in 2027 when SpaceX is trading publicly at $2T and early investors made 150%.
Giving you access to that deal for $40/month was the early-adopter price.
$120/month is the real price.
If you join before Wednesday: $40/month for life
If you join after Wednesday: $120/month forever
Join now. Lock in $40/month.
Get SpaceX access. Save $12,000 over 10 years.
Or wait.
Pay $120/month.
Potentially miss SpaceX allocation.
Your call.
The SpaceX opportunity is live right now. But opportunities like this don't stick around forever, especially not with an IPO potentially six months away.
If you've ever felt like you're always one step behind the big money, this is how you change that.
Founderscrowd Premium gives you one fully analyzed investment opportunity every week, reviewed by our analysts and investment bankers.
The Bottom Line
Wednesday morning, Premium members will get an email that says:
"SpaceX pre-IPO access is now open. Here's your investment memo. Here's how to participate."
Non-Premium members will get an email that says:
"SpaceX allocation is full. Premium members claimed all spots in the first 4 hours. Join the waitlist here."
Which email do you want to receive?
Lock in your lifetime rate.
Get SpaceX access.
Start investing in the deals that matter.
– Alberto
P.S. Monday's email is the last reminder before Wednesday's launch. If you're still on the fence, that email will give you the final push.
P.P.S. Some of you are thinking: "I'll wait and see if SpaceX allocation fills up, then decide."
Here's the thing: If allocation fills up in 4 hours (it will), you won't get in.
And even if you join Premium on Wednesday afternoon after seeing it fill up, you'll pay $120/month (not $100) and you'll be on the waitlist (not in the deal).
First movers win. Waiters watch.
P.P.P.S. The SpaceX investment memo is 47 pages. Bull case, bear case, scenario analysis, fee breakdown, risk factors, comparable company analysis, everything.
You'll get it Wednesday morning if you're Premium.
See you Monday. ☕