🧠 41% of VC went to AI. The returns?

Good morning, Crowd.

Alberto here :)

Something surprised me this week.

Secondaries hit $240 billion in 2025. That's not a side channel for distressed sellers anymore. That's 35% of all private equity exit proceeds. IPOs and M&A used to be the main event — now they're the opening act.

The private markets rewrote the rulebook while everyone was watching AI.

Read time: 5 minutes

Secondary transactions reached $240 billion in 2025, up 48% from the year before.

GP-led deals alone accounted for $115 billion. Pricing averaged 92% of NAV — an 8% discount, but better than waiting 5 more years for a traditional exit.

My read: Secondaries aren't alternative liquidity anymore. When 35% of all distributions happen this way, that's the main event. PE firms can't exit the front door, so they built a bigger side door.

AI startups captured 41% of the $128 billion raised in 2025. That's $52 billion into one category.

Here's the part that matters: funds raised in 2023-2024 (after ChatGPT launched) are posting the highest IRRs compared to 2017-2022 vintages. Early AI bets are outperforming everything.

My take: For two years, people said "AI valuations are insane, this is 2021 all over again." Then the actual return data came out. Turns out early AI investors weren't being reckless — they were being right. Not hype. Math.

Investment opportunity, thesis, pricing analysis, liquidity timeline, risk factors, all the stuff you need to make an informed decision, not just a headline.

$40/month gets you in.

Join Premium →

Seed valuations didn't drop after the 2021 bubble. They kept climbing.

Average seed rounds now price at $20-$30 million. In 2021, it was $15-$25 million. Meanwhile, the IPO bar moved up — median revenue at exit is now $537 million.

Here's the problem: you're paying more at the entry, but the exit got harder. The math doesn't work for most investors. My read: seed investors are overpaying for companies that statistically won't reach the new IPO threshold. Only the top 5% of funds survive this.

Retail investors deployed $204 billion into private markets in 2025. That's up 122% from $92 billion in 2023.

They're coming in through evergreen funds, 401(k)s, and new wealth products. Projections show $3 trillion by 2030.

But here's what they're walking into: DPI (distributions to LPs) at record lows. Average hold periods stretching to 15 years. Exit markets just starting to thaw after a 3-year freeze.

My take: Retail is flooding in while distributions are at their worst in a decade. They're buying at the peak of illiquidity. I'm not saying don't invest in private markets — I'm saying timing matters, and this timing is brutal.

IPO volumes surged 89% year-over-year from Q3 2024 to Q3 2025. Investment banks are optimistic. Everyone's calling it a "recovery."

But here's what JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are saying quietly: up to one-third of all 2026 IPO activity will be private equity firms exiting portfolio companies they've held for 7+ years.

This isn't a healthy IPO market. It's a liquidation event. PE firms have 31,000 companies stuck in portfolios, $3.7 trillion worth. They held through the freeze. Now they're dumping the backlog on public markets.

My read: The IPO window opened, but it's not for new innovation. It's for old inventory. If you're excited about the "2026 IPO recovery," check who's selling and why.